http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2008survey/default.xhtml
What will the Internet look like in 2020 and how will it have affected society? That was the topic of the third generation in a series of surveys administered to technology experts and social analysts by the joint effort of the Pew Internet Project and Elon Univerisity. The 2008 survey included “578 leading Internet activists, builders, and commentators and 618 additional stakeholders (1,196 respondents)” and posed a series of predictions to the respondents, asking whether they would strongly agree or disagree and if they had any comments to add.
As I came across this survey while doing my senior research project, the scenario I found most interesting was the prediction below relating to social tolerance with over 50% of respondents in both categories strongly disagreeing with the vision, citing problems such as the ability of an individual to surround oneself with sources and communities that share the user’s viewpoint:
“Social tolerance has advanced significantly due in great part to the Internet. In 2020, people are more tolerant than they are today, thanks to wider exposure to others and their views that has been brought about by the Internet and other information and communication technologies. The greater tolerance shows up in several metrics, including declining levels of violence, lower levels of sectarian strife, and reduced incidence of overt acts of bigotry and hate crimes.”
Having reviewed some of the content in Clay Shirkey’s book, Here Comes Everybody (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_0FgRKsqqU), I have to disagree with the prediction and I think viewers of Shirkey’s argument will probably agree, given the information he presents.
More relvant to this class, however, were the projections about IP law and Copyright and growth in the use of mobile devices that connect to the Internet. Through my courses in Metropolitan Studies, one interesting fact that’s stuck with me is that people in very poor communities will often find ways to buy mobile phones for commercial use, pooling what little resources they have to gain access to the vast economic potential of the cell phone. This leads to bizzarely counter-intuative situations where companies like Nokia conduct market research in slums like Dharavi in Mumbai (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/13/magazine/13anthropology-t.html).
Cell phones are becoming more common and more essential for the impoverished as they allow, for example, a farmer to check current market prices for his goods and negotiate to deal or to help “a mother in Uganda who needs to carry a child with malaria three hours to visit the nearest doctor but who would like to know first whether that doctor is even in town.” The respondents of the Pew Internet study overwhelmingly agreed that “The mobile phone [will be] the primary connection tool for most people in the world….[the moblie phone will be] the primary Internet connection and the only one for a majority of the people across the world, providing information in a portable, well-connected form at a relatively low price.”
While, initially, usage of the phone by the poor will follow economic imperatives, how will this change in access to and usage of the Internet affect society and culture globally? How will Copyright law interact with future cultural creations and exchanges as our locales of social networking experience an influx of people that may have only met a few people outside of their neighborhood, let alone city or country?

NYTimes.com: "A cellphone shop in Accra, Ghana, which carries and repairs a variety of handsets."
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2008survey/default.xhtml
What will the Internet look like in 2020 and how will it have affected society? That was the topic of the third generation in a series of surveys administered to technology experts and social analysts by the joint effort of the Pew Internet Project and Elon Univerisity. The 2008 survey included “578 leading Internet activists, builders, and commentators and 618 additional stakeholders (1,196 respondents)” and posed a series of predictions to the respondents, asking whether they would strongly agree or disagree and if they had any comments to add.
As I came across this survey while doing my senior research project, the scenario I found most interesting was the prediction below relating to social tolerance. Over 50% of respondents in both categories strongly disagreed with the vision, believing that the Internet will either leave social tolerance unchanged, or affect it for the worse. Having reviewed some of the content in Clay Shirkey’s book, Here Comes Everybody (video here), I have to disagree with the prediction and I think viewers of Shirkey’s argument will probably agree, given the information he presents.
More relevant to this class, however, were the projections about IP law and Copyright and growth in the use of mobile devices that connect to the Internet. Through my courses in Metropolitan Studies, one interesting fact that’s stuck with me is that people in very poor communities will often find ways to buy mobile phones for commercial use, pooling what little resources they have to gain access to the vast economic potential of the cell phone. This leads to bizzarely counter-intuative situations where companies like Nokia conduct market research in slums like Dharavi in Mumbai (NYTimes).
Cell phones are becoming more common and more essential for the impoverished as they allow, for example, a farmer to check current market prices for his goods and negotiate a deal or help “a mother in Uganda who needs to carry a child with malaria three hours to visit the nearest doctor but who would like to know first whether that doctor is even in town.” The respondents of the Pew Internet study overwhelmingly agreed that “The mobile phone [will be] the primary connection tool for most people in the world….[the moblie phone will be] the primary Internet connection and the only one for a majority of the people across the world, providing information in a portable, well-connected form at a relatively low price.” Clearly, cell phones are already breaking into the markets of even the lowest economic classes and there is every reason to believe their popularity and prevalence will grow.
While, initially, usage of the phone by the poor will follow economic imperatives, how will this change in access to and usage of the Internet affect society and culture globally? How will Copyright law interact with future cultural creations and exchanges as our locales of social networking experience an influx of people that may have only met a few people outside of their neighborhood, let alone city or country?